Natural Gas U.S. Futures ($7.26)

I was looking for gradual accumulation above support in the $6.50 area, and that's exactly what is finally happening. My math models indicate that we are deeply oversold both intermediate and long term. Continued short term base building makes sense, but beyond the short term, the outlook, as I see it, is very favorable.

Natural gas makes abrupt moves in both directions, and it's almost impossible to catch once a move is underway.

Gold Futures (U.S. $568)

Until this week, gold was making worthwhile progress in an intermediate term correction that began as it turned lower from its recent $575 area high in early February. This week we broke out above downtrending resistance on the weekly (intermediate term) chart, apparently heading for another challenge of the recent high.

The strong long term uptrend remains intact, but my math indicates that we are overbought. This would suggest that it might be difficult for now to get out of a $540 - 575 area trading range.

Copper U.S. High Grade Futures (242.60)

I had assumed that we would at least pause at resistance in the 230 area, but the strong underlying long term trend appears to dominate over all else. Looks like we're now reaching for round-numbered resistance in the area of 250.

Short and long term outlook positive.

Canadian Dollar Futures ($0.8581)

We appear to be in the process of breaking down through short term support in the 86 cent area, with support now suggested at about 84 cents.

Intermediate term momentum is sluggish, but beyond this there is no evidence of weakness developing in the powerful longer term uptrend.

CRB Index (354)

Looks like we're building short term support in the 350 area. Sufficient base building is in place to allay my earlier concern that we might fall through to support at 330. Instead, a retest of the recent high above 360 seems more likely to me now.

Intermediate and long term outlook positive.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($64.26)

I have stressed the short term significance of support in the $60 area. I would still like to see $55, followed by an effort to build a right shoulder in what could be developing into an important longer term top formation below approximately $70. Evidence of waning long term price momentum.

Natural Gas U.S. Futures ($6.65)

As I see it, natural gas is hanging on to support by its teeth in the $6.65 area while we build the short term base I referred to in an earlier comment.

I'm surprised at the failure to rebuild short term price momentum here, and so I have to caution that the possibility of a break below short term support in the $6.65 area cannot be totally ruled out. Unlikely but not impossible.

Intermediate and long term in deep oversold territory with first evidence of a possible low showing up in the intermediate term momentum math model.

Gold Futures (U.S. $539.90)

I had set out a potential $500 downside target for gold as it passed its $575 high in early February. As I see it, near term selling pressure continues, attempting to push down through support in the $540 area. For now I'm leaving my short term downside target in place in the $500 area.

I see this so far, as a healthy correction in a strong long term uptrend.

Copper U.S. High Grade Futures (221.70)

For now copper appears to be stuck below resistance in the 230 area. Looks like moderate selling pressure could lead to gradual share price erosion if it persists.

Beyond the near term, the longer term underlying trend remains positive in my view.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($59.96)

In my February 14th, 2006 comment on oil, I spoke about the importance of support in the $60 area. Since then we have bounced from $60 and then nudged down through it. I would be happy now to see the $55 short term support area.

I continue to maintain a positive view of oil price prospects beyond the near term.

Canadian Dollar Futures (86.10)

Base building short term in a narrow trading range roughly between 86 and 88 cents. Modestly positive long term trend undisturbed.

Nikkei Index (16115)

Short term view from negative to neutral. Intermediate and long term remain positive.

TSX Index (11833)

The TSX Index is stuck in a narrow trading range below the 12000 area. No loss of long term momentum so neutral stance for now.

U.S. T- Bill Yield 91-Day (4.62 percent)

The yield curve nudged into inverted territory for a week or so, and as I write today, it is essentially flat.

Short rates have paused for a moment here on a wild upside ride, but the powerful underlying uptrend still shows no sign of easing. It looks to me like it's only a matter of time before we're back in inverted yield curve territory with a vengeance.

Nasdaq Composite Index (2262)

Stuck below resistance at about 2325. Bias neutral beyond the near term.

Hang Seng Index (15445)

Stuck in a narrow trading range. A short term correction to the 15000 area appears possible.

CRB Index (349.16)

Intermediate term correction continues. Support around 330.

U.S. Dollar Index (90.86)

Shifting back to an unreserved positive stance on the U.S. Dollar. Had been concerned about possible short term price moderation in the recovery trend.

Philly Bank Index (105.22)

It's like hanging onto a tiger by the tail. Yesterday the Philly Bank Index recorded a ridiculous ten-point spike low before closing less than half a point below its previous daily close. It's not the first time this index has left a disgusting price spike in place for the record.

The Philly Bank Index has had a long affinity to the important 100-point century level on the index. Between 1998 and early 2004, the index worked away below 100. In the spring of 2004, the index finally closed above the 100 barrier for the first time, and thereafter it proceeded to straddle the century level (100) until late 2005.

Since then it has driven along above 100, until yesterday's huge downside spike fell into place. The spike low was recorded here as 94.26, so for the record we are back to straddling the century mark (100).

A lot has happened in the brief span of time since my February 11th, 2006 Bank Index comment. At that time, I was looking for base building, and we got a short term rally instead. On February 11th I finally moved from a neutral longer term stance to a positive outlook. Now I have to go back to a neutral long term view. It looks to me like we won't get away from the 100 area for awhile yet.

U.S. Dollar Index (89.61)

In my U.S. Dollar comment on February 7th, 2006, I said I thought the U.S. Dollar was building a short term base with a view to moving higher in 2006. I still believe that this is the case, but am now concerned that over the short term this base building process might include a correction to the area of 88 before moving on higher. Just a heads up here.

S & P 500 Index (1287)

Back on November 26th, 2005, I said it looked like the S & P was reaching for resistance in the 1300 area. Since then, it has indeed reached for 1300 three times, and on each occasion I have called for a meaningful correction. Each time I have witnessed both a correction and a rebound, without achieving anything near the downside target I envisioned.

I'm pleased about having recognized the importance of the resistance barrier in the area of 1300, but disappointed that we have not headed lower to my previously stated downside target in the 1200-1225 area. My 1200-1225 downside target remains unchanged.