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Saturday, August 27, 2005

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($66.13)

It would appear that we are in the process of completing a top formation just below my short term target of $70. A correction to the $60 area would make sense once this top has run its course.

The longer term call is more difficult. I can say that the pattern is long-in-the-tooth. It is also at the top of its trading range within a powerful uptrend channel ( long term math model). A short term correction will take us to the lower edge of this channel, but in order to comfortably state that we have passed a longer term top, we must break down through uptrending support.

I don't provide advice here (only commentary), but for my own hypothetical account, I would be taking profits as the oil price pushes toward seventy dollars from here on the chance that we are in the process of passing a very important price peak.

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