Natural Gas U.S. Futures ($5.62)

Natural Gas has gapped up in recent days, indicating a release from the relentless downside price pressure that preceded the demise of the huge Amaranth Hedge Fund. With Amaranth now history, it seems appropriate to revise my short and intermediate term views on Natural Gas.

Over the short term I would expect an eventual challenge of the downtrending 200-Day Moving Average in the area above $7.

I have spoken about year end price strength that often occurs in the case of this commodity. Now that we are post-Amaranth, it is just possible that we have passed an intermediate term low at this point. In order to acknowledge this, I am revising my intermediate term outlook from negative to neutral, with a plan to move toward a positive view if this low is confirmed.