Oil Futures U.S. Light Crude ($64.52)

As I see it, we are passing an important secondary price peak for oil at this time. The prospect of lower oil prices plays into the scenario that the U.S. is going into a recessionary period.

Oil U.S. Light Sweet Crude ($62.87)

I started talking about $60 as an important support area for Oil back in September, and since then I have described Oil as hanging on by its teeth in the $60 area.

On November 19th I reluctantly stepped to the sidelines out of concern for the need to eventually complete a short term correction in an intermediate term uptrend. We are still attempting to climb a short term "B" wave.

MY DILEMMA: I see senior oil producer shares as the only group that is anywhere near the support side of its intermediate term uptrend, while most other groups appear to be slowly rolling past short term tops. (Most groups are in intermediate term uptrends, just like oil.)

MY SOLUTION: I have recently said I would park funds in senior oils while awaiting the short term general market cool down.

Oil U.S. Light Sweet Crude Futures ($55.81)

In a previous Comment I said I thought that Oil was hanging on by its teeth in the $60 area, and it might possibly be base-building.

Perhaps I was only half right. It's still hanging on by its teeth in the $60 area (more accurately $55-60), but now I think it's possible that after moving sideways for a month or so, this may turn out to have been a right shoulder. I'm not in a panic over this because $55 to $60 is a great price for oil.

The long term uptrend remains intact, and I'm now describing what I perceive to be a "B" wave in an ABC corrective phase in that long term uptrend.

This latest revelation has dashed my hopes for getting back into Oil stocks on the near term. My idea now is to wait until after the final "C" wave correction.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($59.45)

In a recent Comment on Oil, I said that we were hanging on by our teeth in the $60 area. We continue to do so, and I simply want to point out that among the categories I follow, Oil is about the only one that might be in a short term base-building phase at the moment.

I recognize that it might be a bit early to make positive comments on Oil. This is just a heads up. I'm watching it carefully.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($60.36)

On September 24/06 I was looking for Oil to hold in the $60 support area and I expected a short term bounce from there. Today I am watching the price hang on by its teeth in the area of $60, still showing no sign of my anticipated recovery.

I'm still looking for a short term recovery once this period of relentless downside price momentum subsides, and I'm hopeful we can hang on in the $60 area for now.

I don't want to lose sight of my own positive intermediate term outlook for oil.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($58.57)

Prime Minister Steven Harper says that Canada is becoming an energy Super Power. Retired U.S. Fed Governor Alan Greenspan says that Canada has become a major world player in energy. In 2004, the CNBC television network listed the top six suppliers of oil to the U.S. as: Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iraq.

Are Canadians listening? Most of us are simply not paying attention to the reality that we live in one of the wealthiest countries on the planet. Canadians are the beneficiaries of a huge Federal Budget Oil Surplus, generated for the most part by the Province of Alberta.

Alberta has returned to the driver's seat as the engine of growth for our great country. We are indeed an energy Super Power.

Oil U.S. Light Crude Futures ($60.55)

As expected, Crude Oil has dropped to upside trend support in the $60 area. I can now see the prospect for recovery from this level on my short term model.

The underlying intermediate term trend remains positive and now indicates an oversold condition.

Oil Light Crude Futures (U.S. $66.25)

Crude Futures have shown surprising short term weakness, having poked down through 200-Day Moving Average support in the area of $67.50. I had expected that over the short term, oil futures would hold at this Moving Average. As I write today, I get no encouragement from my short term math models to suggest that the price will hold here. As a result, I am forced to look for a new support level below the 200-Day Moving Average. Upside channel support shows up in the $60 area.

In spite of the short term snit we are in, the intermediate term trend remains strong.