Natural Gas U.S. Futures ($7.32)

Among commodities, natural gas recently led the pack on the downside, with a spectacular plunge from the $16 area. I've been working with it long enough to know that it's a forecaster's nightmare. I called for the rapid upside into October, and looked for a sharp selloff from there. Today, I have my sharp selloff, but in the midst of the downside move that started in October, natural gas spiked to a $16 high that simply wasn't in my forecast, or any other forecast that I know of.

At this point, we're wildly oversold on the intermediate term, and a short term bounce in March would make sense. Thereafter, a base building period might set the stage for another recovery.