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Sunday, February 12, 2006

T Bill Yield Index U.S. 91-Day (4.54 percent)

The T-Bill yield continues to soar. In December I said my next upside target was 4.5 percent. We're through 4.5 percent now, and my unique math models didn't even hint at slowing down as we approached the area.

From here, there is heavy technical resistance above us all the way to 5.5 percent, but there is no suggestion from the math models that sellers are showing up to slow down the upside action.

We have already seen a yield inversion all the way out to the thirty-year bond. It's only two days old, but if this wild upside ride in T-Bill rates continues, the inversion could be with us for awhile. Of course, yield curve inversions traditionally precede economic recessions.

Where do we go from here? I'm hoping my math models will foresee the end of this upside extravaganza before it arrives. If we roar through resistance at 5.5 percent, the next resistance level I can see is at 6.5 percent, and then it's wide open as I see it, all the way to the area above 9 percent. And all this without inflation?? A wild ride indeed!

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