T Bill Yield U.S. 91-Day (3.96 percent)

As I see it, T Bill rates are still attempting to recover from the huge yield crash that occurred between the years 2000 and 2003. This yield recovery has been even more abrupt than the earlier collapse in rates. It looks to me like we are back within the normal trading range boundaries, but we have not lost the powerful short term upside momentum that it took to get us there.

My long term momentum model signalled an overbought condition some time ago, but short term strength continues unabated. Short term trading momentum has not yet responded to the approach to the four percent yield level, leading me to assume that we will push up through it without difficulty. If this happens the 4.5 percent area might offer the next meaningful level of resistance.